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Analysis of steel market price operation at home and abroad in September 2019 an
Update time:2019-10-22 15:08:00Clicks:1862
China business intelligence network news: in September 2019, the domestic crude steel output decreased slightly, steel demand stabilized and slowed down, and steel prices rose first and then fell. With the further slowdown of market demand in the later pe
China business intelligence network news: in September 2019, the domestic crude steel output decreased slightly, steel demand stabilized and slowed down, and steel prices rose first and then fell. With the further slowdown of market demand in the later period, the steel output will also decline, the market overall maintains a weak balance, and the steel price will fluctuate slightly.
I. steel price rises slightly
At the end of September, CSPI China steel price index was 106.09 points, up 1.34 points on a month on month basis, up 1.28%; down 15.55 points, down 12.78% compared with the same period last year. (see figure below)
CSPI China steel price index trend chart
In terms of the whole month, the average CSPI China steel price index in September was 108.60 points, down 0.30 points or 0.28% from the average in August.
1. Prices of long timber and plate have rebounded slightly, and the price rise of long timber is larger than that of plate
At the end of September, the CSPI long material index was 111.83 points, up 2.77 points on a month on month basis, up 2.54%; the CSPI plate index was 102.24 points, up 0.20 points on a month on month basis, up 0.20%; the long material price rose 2.34 percentage points higher than the plate price; compared with the same period last year, the long material price index dropped 17.83 points, down 13.75%; the plate price index dropped 14.14 points, down 12.15%. (see the following figure and table)
CSPI price index trend of domestic long wood and plate
CSPI China steel price index changes
2. Price changes of main steel products
At the end of September, the prices of high-speed wire and screw steel increased by 138 yuan / ton and 124 yuan / ton respectively among the eight steel varieties monitored by the iron and Steel Association, with a large increase; the prices of hot-rolled coil plate and galvanized plate increased by 5 yuan / ton and 7 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the prices of cold-rolled sheet continued to increase by 24 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the prices of hot-rolled seamless tube decreased by 14 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the prices of angle steel and medium thick plate increased by 14 yuan / ton on a month on month basis It continued to decline, down 21 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. (see table below)
Price and index change of main steel products
Unit: yuan / ton
3. Change of steel price index in each week
In the first and second weeks of September, steel prices continued to rise; in the third and fourth weeks, steel prices declined slightly; since October, steel prices have declined slightly. (see table below)
Changes of CSPI domestic steel price composite index in each week
4. Changes in steel prices in major regional markets
According to the monitoring of the iron and Steel Association, in September, the market price index of CSPI in six major regions of the country changed from falling to rising. Among them, East China, central and South China, southwest and northwest regions increased by 1.62%, 1.53%, 1.54% and 1.42% respectively, while North China and northeast regions increased by 0.58% and 0.86% respectively. (see table below)
Change of CSPI steel price index by Region
II. Analysis on factors of steel price change in domestic market
September is the traditional peak season of steel consumption, and the overall demand for steel is stable. Influenced by the National Day holiday, the steel market demand is stable and slowing down, the steel output is slightly reduced, and the steel price first rises and then falls, showing a small fluctuation trend.
1. The steel industry keeps growing and the steel demand is basically stable
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the third quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the second quarter; in the first three quarters, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January August. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 4.5%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to August; national real estate development investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, the same as last month. Among them, the newly started housing area increased by 8.6%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that from January to August; in September, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that in August. On a month on month basis, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.72% in September. In the main steel industry, the growth of special equipment manufacturing industry, automobile industry, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, power and heat production and supply industry continued to grow. In general, the steel industry has maintained growth and the steel demand is basically stable.
2. The crude steel output decreased slightly, and the pressure at the supply end was relieved
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in September, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel (excluding repetitive materials) were 67.31 million tons, 82.77 million tons and 104.37 million tons, respectively, up 2.1%, 2.2% and 6.9% year-on-year; the daily output of crude steel was 2.759 million tons, down 56000 tons on month, down 2.0%. In addition, according to the statistics of the customs, in September, the national steel export volume was 5.33 million tons, up 320000 tons on a month on month basis, up 6.5%; the national steel import volume was 1.11 million tons, up 140000 tons on a month on month basis, up 14.3%; the net export steel volume was converted into 4.39 million tons of crude steel. According to the above data, the average daily supply of crude steel in September was 2.613 million tons, down 2.5% on a month on month basis, and the pressure at the supply end was relieved.
3. The price of imported mines and scrap steel rose on a month on month basis, while the price of coal and coke fell slightly
At the end of September, the price of domestic iron concentrate continued to decline, down 12 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the price of imported iron ore changed from decline to rise, up 7.55 US dollars / ton on a month on month basis; the price of coking coal and metallurgical coke fell, down 30 yuan / ton and 85 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the price of scrap steel rose 74 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. In terms of the year-on-year situation, at the end of September, the prices of domestic and imported mines increased by 26.19% and 34.65% respectively, still at a high level. (see table below)
Price change of main raw and combustion materials
III. steel prices continue to decline in the international market
In September, the CRU international steel composite price index was 159.0 points, down 0.9 points on a month-on-month basis, down 0.56%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, the fifth consecutive month of decline; and
I. steel price rises slightly
At the end of September, CSPI China steel price index was 106.09 points, up 1.34 points on a month on month basis, up 1.28%; down 15.55 points, down 12.78% compared with the same period last year. (see figure below)
CSPI China steel price index trend chart
In terms of the whole month, the average CSPI China steel price index in September was 108.60 points, down 0.30 points or 0.28% from the average in August.
1. Prices of long timber and plate have rebounded slightly, and the price rise of long timber is larger than that of plate
At the end of September, the CSPI long material index was 111.83 points, up 2.77 points on a month on month basis, up 2.54%; the CSPI plate index was 102.24 points, up 0.20 points on a month on month basis, up 0.20%; the long material price rose 2.34 percentage points higher than the plate price; compared with the same period last year, the long material price index dropped 17.83 points, down 13.75%; the plate price index dropped 14.14 points, down 12.15%. (see the following figure and table)
CSPI price index trend of domestic long wood and plate
CSPI China steel price index changes
2. Price changes of main steel products
At the end of September, the prices of high-speed wire and screw steel increased by 138 yuan / ton and 124 yuan / ton respectively among the eight steel varieties monitored by the iron and Steel Association, with a large increase; the prices of hot-rolled coil plate and galvanized plate increased by 5 yuan / ton and 7 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the prices of cold-rolled sheet continued to increase by 24 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the prices of hot-rolled seamless tube decreased by 14 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the prices of angle steel and medium thick plate increased by 14 yuan / ton on a month on month basis It continued to decline, down 21 yuan / ton and 10 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. (see table below)
Price and index change of main steel products
Unit: yuan / ton
3. Change of steel price index in each week
In the first and second weeks of September, steel prices continued to rise; in the third and fourth weeks, steel prices declined slightly; since October, steel prices have declined slightly. (see table below)
Changes of CSPI domestic steel price composite index in each week
4. Changes in steel prices in major regional markets
According to the monitoring of the iron and Steel Association, in September, the market price index of CSPI in six major regions of the country changed from falling to rising. Among them, East China, central and South China, southwest and northwest regions increased by 1.62%, 1.53%, 1.54% and 1.42% respectively, while North China and northeast regions increased by 0.58% and 0.86% respectively. (see table below)
Change of CSPI steel price index by Region
II. Analysis on factors of steel price change in domestic market
September is the traditional peak season of steel consumption, and the overall demand for steel is stable. Influenced by the National Day holiday, the steel market demand is stable and slowing down, the steel output is slightly reduced, and the steel price first rises and then falls, showing a small fluctuation trend.
1. The steel industry keeps growing and the steel demand is basically stable
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the third quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the second quarter; in the first three quarters, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January August. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 4.5%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to August; national real estate development investment increased by 10.5% year-on-year, the same as last month. Among them, the newly started housing area increased by 8.6%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that from January to August; in September, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points higher than that in August. On a month on month basis, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 0.72% in September. In the main steel industry, the growth of special equipment manufacturing industry, automobile industry, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, power and heat production and supply industry continued to grow. In general, the steel industry has maintained growth and the steel demand is basically stable.
2. The crude steel output decreased slightly, and the pressure at the supply end was relieved
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in September, the output of pig iron, crude steel and steel (excluding repetitive materials) were 67.31 million tons, 82.77 million tons and 104.37 million tons, respectively, up 2.1%, 2.2% and 6.9% year-on-year; the daily output of crude steel was 2.759 million tons, down 56000 tons on month, down 2.0%. In addition, according to the statistics of the customs, in September, the national steel export volume was 5.33 million tons, up 320000 tons on a month on month basis, up 6.5%; the national steel import volume was 1.11 million tons, up 140000 tons on a month on month basis, up 14.3%; the net export steel volume was converted into 4.39 million tons of crude steel. According to the above data, the average daily supply of crude steel in September was 2.613 million tons, down 2.5% on a month on month basis, and the pressure at the supply end was relieved.
3. The price of imported mines and scrap steel rose on a month on month basis, while the price of coal and coke fell slightly
At the end of September, the price of domestic iron concentrate continued to decline, down 12 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the price of imported iron ore changed from decline to rise, up 7.55 US dollars / ton on a month on month basis; the price of coking coal and metallurgical coke fell, down 30 yuan / ton and 85 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the price of scrap steel rose 74 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. In terms of the year-on-year situation, at the end of September, the prices of domestic and imported mines increased by 26.19% and 34.65% respectively, still at a high level. (see table below)
Price change of main raw and combustion materials
III. steel prices continue to decline in the international market
In September, the CRU international steel composite price index was 159.0 points, down 0.9 points on a month-on-month basis, down 0.56%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, the fifth consecutive month of decline; and